Focus on Nature-based Solutions in the 2020 Adaptation Gap Report
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Adaptation Gap Report (AGR) is a flagship report that informs and provides insights for climate negotiation and information on the latest status of climate change adaptation action. The Adaptation Gap Report 2020 is the 5th edition in a line of previous Adaptation Gap Reports that have been produced by the UNEP since 2014, whose objective is to assess the global adaptation gaps and inform on the status of the global adaptation efforts.
The Adaptation Gap Report 2020 comprises 3 central elements of the adaptation process; planning, financing and implementation. It also includes a special focus on a selected theme for a specific year, which is Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for the year 2020, based on the growing connections and the potential for synergies between climate and biodiversity agendas. The purpose of this special focus into a specific theme is to give an in-depth of progress in the selected theme or sector and also add supplementary perspective to the overall progress assessment in the Report. The Report also comprises a status of global adaptation progress, ahead of the upcoming Global Stocktake in 2023, to provide a snap shot of where the world stands in its collective effort to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
The 2015 Paris Agreement put special importance on national-level adaptation planning and review of adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation as part of the Global Stocktake, but there was no agreed methodology for such a review, and the global adaptation goal is yet to be quantified as is the case for climate change mitigation.
There has been significant progress in the adoption of adaptation measures with 72% of countries having at least one national-level adaptation instrument, 125 developing countries having commenced the process of formulating and implementing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and 20 countries having completed their NAPs.
Focussing on the actual implementation is a requirement to understanding adaptation progress. The top priority sectors for adaptation projects as outlined in the Adaptation Gap Report 2020 are agriculture and water sector as these are the ones that are most vulnerable to climate change and are affected by extreme weather events almost immediately. The hazards that were addressed by adaptation projects as they appear in the Report were mainly drought, flooding and rainfall variability. Other hazards include water stress, sea-level rise, storms, cyclones, hurricanes, salinization, inland flooding and extreme heat among others. The Report also noted that limited data is available on adaptation outcomes, as climate funds mainly use out-put level indicators. Limited evidence of climate risk reduction was also noted with Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) identifying less than 4% of articles that noted a reduction in climate risk. A recommendation on project development was the need to focus on how adaptation takes place, for example by using a theory of change so that it also becomes easy to quantify adaptation.
Nature-based Solutions for Adaptation
Nature has a fundamental role to play in both climate change adaptation and mitigation. The ongoing 5th United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) focuses on strengthening actions for nature to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate change is recognized as a major driver of biodiversity loss with 2021 marking the beginning of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, hence the need for action in the now. Nature-based Solutions for adaptation manage climate change risks and impacts through restoration, building on and enhancing ecosystem services to help people adapt to climate change and enhance the climate resilience of communities, assets and society.
There is an urgent need for policy and action to secure and harness nature’s benefits. Nature-based solutions are applied to mainly address four main types of climate-related hazards: coastal hazards (sea level, rise, storm surge, coastal erosion), intense precipitation, rising temperatures and drought. Nature-based solutions require system-scale approaches and should involve planning and coordination across national and jurisdiction boundaries for them to be successful.
The effectiveness of nature-based solutions can be limited by the substantial impacts of high-end climate change on biodiversity, that also increases societal vulnerability thus reducing adaptation choices. Ecosystem vulnerability and their ability to reduce climate impacts are acknowledged in adaptation plans. The potential of nature-based solutions for reducing specific climate risks is however rarely explicitly recognized. There is an increasing trend in the implementation of nature-based solutions for adaptation but it is still unclear as to whether this rising trend will continue and it is early to assess the effects of these interventions. The full potential of nature-based solutions can be realized by limiting the risks of dangerous levels of warming (mitigation) and scaling up ambition and action on protecting, conserving and restoring nature.
Adaption Progress
Progress has indeed been made in adaptation planning, finance and implementation but there is still need too scale-up action in all the areas to narrow the adaption gap. Adaptation is important in minimizing costs from losses, damages and increasing resilience against climate risk. The cost of adaptation investment is noted to be much lower than the losses of avoiding or not having invested in adaptation.
National-level plans/strategies/frameworks/laws are in place in most countries but with variable levels of maturity. An increase in adaptation finance and projects has been realized globally although there is still a lot of work to be done to minimize the adaptation gap. There has been a move towards more actionable policies such as better inclusion of specific measures such as nature-based solutions which was the special focus on the Adaptation Gap Report 2020. There has also been a diversification of instruments and sources in the evolving financial modalities coupled with signs of more climate proof and sustainable financial systems and investments.
Adaptation Gaps
Adaptation costs are increasing at a higher rate than adaptation finance, although there is a lack of clear tangible evidence. At the global level, monitoring and evaluation systems for adaptation are still underdeveloped. There is a lack of evidence of national-level adaptation policies trickling to sub-national levels. Limited understanding of future trends in adaptation planning, finance and implementation is another challenge. Another adaptation gap is that it still remains unclear how equity dimensions such as gender are considered in national-level adaptation.
Constraints in the Interpretation of Adaptation Findings
Adaptation goals at the global and national level remain insufficiently defined as it is still not clear what the targets are especially globally. There is also poor availability of shared databases documenting planning and implementation in high-income countries and also on private financing. There exists a scientific gap in understanding the effectiveness of local to national adaptation strategies/projects in terms of risk reduction now and in the future. There is uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects of contextual changes such as COVID-19 crisis on adaptation efforts and results.
The main issues that need to be resolved before the Global Stock-take 2023 are:
- Methods of assessment
- The need to ensure better input to allow the assessment
- The need to have a coherent process, to ensure the reports are complementary
Countries need to be incentivised to use COVID-19 recovery plans and stimulus packages for actions that increase climate change adaptation. Future Adaptation Gap Report needs to look at planning and how this can be followed through to financing and implementation to deliver results and cause impact. It was noted that 75% of the countries that have an adaptation plan don’t have proper monitoring and evaluation, hence creating a discourse between planning and actual implementation.
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